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Dlaczego będzie wojna na Ukrainie

Dlaczego będzie wojna na Ukrainie

u2 <> / 2014-03-16 18:31:46
warto poczytac o grozbach, ktore forumluja ruskie czinowniki. podobnie
jak w szachach grozba jest wazniejsza od jej spelnienia :

The current crisis is not about Crimea. It is about the rights of
Russian-speakers throughout Ukraine whom the Kremlin wants to protect
from violence and discrimination. Russia does not want a military
intervention in Crimea and does not want to take Crimea from Ukraine.

There is a political solution to this crisis. First, create a coalition
government in Kiev composed of all parties, including those from the
east and south of the country. The current government is dominated by
anti-Russian extremists from western Ukraine.

If the extremists who seized power in Kiev do not accept Russia's
democratic proposals, Russia will likely be forced to revert to military
means to solve the crisis in Ukraine.

Second, Ukraine needs to draft a democratic constitution that has
guarantees for Ukraine's Russian-speaking population that would grant
official status to the Russian language and establish the principle of

Third, presidential and parliamentary elections must be held soon.
Independent election observers must play an active role in ensuring that
the elections are free and fair. There is a real danger that they will
be manipulated by the neo-Nazi militants who de facto seized power in a

If these democratic and peaceful solutions to the crisis in Ukraine are
rejected by the opposition forces that have seized power in Kiev, I am
afraid that Russia will have no other choice but to revert to military
means. If the junta leaders want to avoid war, they need to adopt
Moscow's peaceful and democratic proposals and adhere to them.

Those currently in power in Kiev are carrying out a political strategy
that is not so much pro-European as it is anti-Russian, as evidenced by
the surprisingly heavy-handed tactics the U.S. and European Union have
employed in Ukraine. In the end, a minority executed a violent coup that
removed the democratically elected and legitimate president of Ukraine.

The Kremlin believes that the current Ukrainian leadership will
manipulate the elections planned for May 25 to install a single leader
or coalition government functioning much as former Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili did in Tbilisi. A "Ukrainian Saakashvili" will
unleash an even more repressive campaign of intimidation against
Russian-speakers, one that over several years would stoke anti-Russia
hysteria among the general population.

After that, Kiev may evict Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol and
purge Crimea of any Russian influence. Ukraine could easily become a
radicalized, anti-Russian state, at which point Kiev will fabricate a
pretext to justify taking subversive action against Moscow. This looks
especially likely considering that ruling coalition members from the
neo-fascist Svoboda and Right Sector parties have already made
territorial claims against Russia. They could easily send their army of
activists to Russia to join local separatists and foment rebellion in
the North Caucasus and other unstable regions in Russia. In addition,
Russia's opposition movement will surely want to use the successful
experience and technology of the Euromaidan protests and, with the help
and financial support of the West, try to carry out their own revolution
in Moscow. The goal: to remove President Vladimir Putin from power and
install a puppet leadership that will sell Russia's strategic interests
out to the West in the same way former President Boris Yeltsin did in
the 1990s.

The official census puts the Russian minority in Ukraine at 16 percent
of the total population, although that number was falsified. The actual
number is closer to 25 percent. Surveys indicate that 45 percent of the
country's population speak Russian at home, 45 percent speak Ukrainian
and 10 percent speak both languages. In the most recent Gallup survey,
when asked in which language they would like to be polled, 83 percent of
respondents chose Russian. Taking into account the rural population in
western and central Ukraine, about 75 percent of the people, probably
speak Russian. Of that 75 percent, only about 10 percent are those in
Kiev and a few other major cities who supported the protests. This means
that only 35 percent of the population are attempting to impose its will
on the remaining 65 percent, using a violent coup to achieve their goals.

Putin made the right decision: He did not to wait for that attack and
took preventative measures. Many in the West say the Kremlin's reactions
were paranoiac, but Germany's Jews also thought the same of leaving the
country in 1934. Most of them chose to believe they were safe and
remained in Germany even after Hitler came to power. The infamous
Kristallnacht took place five years later, one of the first early
chapters in the "Final Solution." Similarly, just four years remain
until Russia's presidential election in 2018, and there is a strong risk
that subversive forces within and outside Russia will try to overthrow
Putin, in part using their new foothold in Ukraine.

Will there be war in Ukraine? I am afraid so. After all, the extremists
who seized power in Kiev want to see a bloodbath. Only fear for their
own lives might stop them from inciting such a conflict. Russia is
prepared to move its forces into southern and eastern Ukraine if
repressive measures are used against the Russian-speaking population or
if a military intervention occurs. Russia will not annex Crimea. It has
enough territory already. At the same time, however, it will also not
stand by passively while Russophobic and neo-Nazi gangs hold the people
of Crimea, Kharkiv and Donetsk at their mercy.

Sergei Markov is director of the Institute of Political Studies.